Treasury Yields Near 4.8% Breakout as $40 Trillion Debt Pressures Long Bonds
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 7
Treasury Yields Near 4.8% Breakout as $40 Trillion Debt Pressures Long Bonds
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 7
Summary
A sustained move above 4.8% on the 10-year Treasury yield would mark the January 2025 high and could start causing broader stress across other asset classes, strategist Matt Maley said.
Rising fiscal deficits, debt above $40 trillion, heavy Treasury supply and strong corporate borrowing are keeping long-term yields elevated, while Treasury jawboning has so far failed to push rates lower.
More than $8.4 trillion of U.S. government securities must roll over by year-end, and September could be a record month for high-grade corporate issuance; Goldman Sachs now sees 2026 investment-grade supply at $2.3 trillion.
HSBC raised its end-2026 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.65% from 4.30% and also turned more cautious on long-dated developed-market bonds, reflecting similar fiscal strains in Japan, the U.K. and France.
A disorderly rise in long yields could reprice growth stocks, commercial real estate and private assets, reinforcing recent warnings that bond investors are increasingly focused on U.S. debt sustainability.