Updated
Updated · The Center Square · Sep 2
Virginia Economy Grows 0.5% in 2026 as State Sheds 18,050 Jobs
Updated
Updated · The Center Square · Sep 2

Virginia Economy Grows 0.5% in 2026 as State Sheds 18,050 Jobs

2 articles · Updated · The Center Square · Sep 2

Summary

  • UVA’s latest forecast says Virginia will post 0.5% real GDP growth in 2026 even as employment falls 0.4%, or about 18,050 jobs, marking a second straight year of job losses.
  • 9,100 jobs were already lost in the first half, and the report says growth is being driven by productivity and output gains rather than broad hiring; Virginia is also expected to trail U.S. GDP growth of 2.1%.
  • Professional services led the decline with 9,500 jobs lost between December and June, alongside drops of 4,400 in manufacturing and 4,900 in administrative support, while retail added 4,500 and healthcare 2,800.
  • Federal payrolls fell another 2,900 after a 22,000 drop in 2025, but local and state governments added 9,400 and 1,700 jobs, leaving total government employment projected to end 2026 above its starting level.
  • A labor-force drop of nearly 68,000 since early 2025 has muted the unemployment impact, with the jobless rate seen holding near 3.9% before employment growth returns in 2027.

Insights

If Virginia's economy is technically growing, why have nearly 68,000 workers suddenly vanished from the labor force since early 2025?
With federal jobs hitting a 30-year low in the capital region, which local industries will be the next to feel the devastating ripple effect?
Why are outer suburbs booming with new jobs while the capital's inner-core jurisdictions face their worst employment contraction in years?