HSBC Economist Warns Asia Faces AI Demand Risk as 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 4.8%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 1
HSBC Economist Warns Asia Faces AI Demand Risk as 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 4.8%
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 1
Summary
Frederick Neumann said current Asian market conditions echo the run-up to the 1997 crisis, citing a 10-year Treasury yield around 4.79%, a weak yen and AI-driven tech optimism.
Those parallels include this year’s roughly 80-basis-point rise in U.S. yields and the yen’s 57% slide from about 103 in 2021 to 163 in July, before joint U.S.-Japan intervention pulled it back near 160.
Neumann argued the bigger picture is different from the 1990s because Asia now exports capital rather than relying on foreign funding, making higher U.S. borrowing costs and a softer yen less of a direct financial threat.
The main vulnerability instead is demand: AI-linked electronics exports have supported South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, but that growth could fade if higher U.S. yields hit the AI hardware boom or yen volatility disrupts funding markets.