VIX Slips Below 15 as 10-Year Yield Tops 4.7%, Putting Investors on Alert
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 31
VIX Slips Below 15 as 10-Year Yield Tops 4.7%, Putting Investors on Alert
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 31
Summary
The S&P 500 has held its uptrend into late August, staying within 2% of its record high, but investors are being warned that calm trading now masks several market gauges nearing inflection points.
The VIX has fallen below 15, a level associated less with routine stability than possible complacency, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.7% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled rates may need to rise soon.
September hike odds moved to just above 50% after Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, leaving a near-coin-flip Fed outlook that could restrain risk appetite even without a clear yield level that automatically hurts stocks.
Other signals are also tightening: broad commodity indexes are nearing five-year highs, corporate credit spreads remain unusually tight, and some risk-appetite gauges have retreated from June's AI-dealmaking exuberance.
As investors start modeling 2027, the market also faces a likely slowdown from 2026's outsized earnings growth, with Nvidia and Micron together accounting for about one-third of aggregate gains.