Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 30
U.S. August Payrolls Seen Rising 62,500 as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Top 55%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 30

U.S. August Payrolls Seen Rising 62,500 as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Top 55%

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 30

Summary

  • Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 62,500 new jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate and 0.3% average hourly earnings growth.
  • Fed rate-hike odds for mid-September jumped above 55% from just over 35% after Chair Kevin Warsh said labor markets still reflect full employment while inflation remains the bigger concern.
  • Wednesday’s ADP report is forecast to show 46,500 private-sector jobs, while Tuesday’s July JOLTS data will offer another read on labor-market tightness before the official payrolls release.
  • A stronger-than-expected jobs print would likely push hike expectations higher still, reinforcing the market’s view that the Fed can keep prioritizing its 2% inflation target.

Insights

Is the illusion of a stable US job market merely being propped up by a hiring surge in just one industry?
Could a modest job rebound actually be the catalyst that forces the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs painfully high?
Why are recent graduates struggling to find work while policymakers celebrate a supposedly resilient and rebounding labor market?