Updated
Updated · Foreign Policy · Aug 27
U.S. Burns Through Half of Key Missiles in Iran War as Deterrence Weakens Globally
Updated
Updated · Foreign Policy · Aug 27

U.S. Burns Through Half of Key Missiles in Iran War as Deterrence Weakens Globally

3 articles · Updated · Foreign Policy · Aug 27

Summary

  • CSIS estimates the United States has expended as much as half of some key offensive and defensive missiles in the Iran war, creating a new constraint on White House military options.
  • About 1,200 of roughly 2,500 Patriot interceptors may already be gone; each costs around $4 million, and replacement typically takes about 36 months from contract to delivery.
  • Tomahawks, THAAD interceptors, SM-3s, SM-6s, JASSMs, ATACMs and PrSMs have also reportedly been used heavily, stretching both strike and missile-defense inventories.
  • Those drawdowns are forcing trade-offs across Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, with analysts warning they weaken deterrence against China and make further aid to Ukraine harder.
  • Production is rising from about 350 Patriots a year to 650 and could reach 2,000 by 2030, but analysts say only faster congressional funding and contracting can close the near-term gap.

Insights

Will the severe shortage of American precision weapons force vulnerable Asian partners to abandon Washington and seek new global protectors?
With critical missile stockpiles depleted until 2030, how will America defend its Pacific allies if a sudden crisis erupts tomorrow?
Could the prolonged Middle East conflict be a strategic trap designed to leave Asia defenseless against emerging threats?