Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Aug 25
Austin Mock Projects Rams for 11.6 Wins, Seahawks and Patriots Above 10
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Aug 25

Austin Mock Projects Rams for 11.6 Wins, Seahawks and Patriots Above 10

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Aug 25

Summary

  • 11.6 wins for the Rams is the highest total in Austin Mock’s 2026 NFL model, with defending champion Seattle at 10.8 and Super Bowl runner-up New England at 10.3 ahead of the Sept. 9 opener.
  • 32 team projections show a tightly packed contender tier: Baltimore 10.9, Buffalo 10.7, Philadelphia 10.4, Cincinnati and New England 10.3, and Detroit and San Francisco 10.2.
  • Beat-writer reactions split on where the model misses most, calling Cincinnati, Houston, Jacksonville, the Chargers, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay too low, while Atlanta, Cleveland and Washington were flagged as too high.
  • Schedule strength, quarterback health and offseason upheaval drive much of the disagreement, from Seattle’s first-place slate and Kansas City’s depth concerns to the Rams’ star-loaded roster and Washington’s line injuries.
  • With Week 1 two weeks away, the projections frame the early playoff picture around the NFC West, where the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers all sit at 10.2 wins or better.

Insights

What hidden statistical flaw is causing NFL insiders to completely reject the gloomy forecasts for teams like the Lions?
Could the heavily hyped Patriots offense actually fall victim to a brutal schedule despite landing major superstar upgrades?
Why is a mathematical model predicting a total collapse for a highly talented Miami Dolphins roster this upcoming season?