Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 24

SportsLine Model Backs Virginia, New Mexico State to Cover Week 0 Spreads After 10,000 Simulations

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 24

SportsLine Model Backs Virginia, New Mexico State to Cover Week 0 Spreads After 10,000 Simulations

Q: Which secret Week 0 underdog is the predictive model backing to pull off a shocking outright victory this Saturday?

The article does not disclose the underdog. SportsLine kept that pick behind its paywall, and the provided reporting only says the model found “one underdog it expects to win outright” without naming the team. Based on the surrounding Week 0 matchups and outside previews, the most commonly cited upset candidates are Hawaii at Stanford, Memphis at UNLV, and possibly North Carolina against TCU. Of those, Hawaii appears to be the strongest public-facing upset suggestion in the additional coverage, with some analysts explicitly calling the Rainbow Warriors the Week 0 upset pick because they return quarterback Micah Alejado, have more offensive continuity, and beat Stanford last year. Still, to answer strictly and accurately: the “secret” underdog is not identified in the available SportsLine story. Any specific team named would be an informed guess rather than a confirmed selection.

Q: How will the sudden relocation of the Virginia-NC State matchup from Brazil to Charlottesville impact the weekend's tightest betting spread?

The move to Charlottesville likely made Virginia the rightful favorite in what had been one of Week 0’s most competitive lines, and it helps explain why the spread sits around Cavaliers -5.5. Had the game remained in Brazil, the betting market would have treated it more like a neutral-site opener, reducing Virginia’s edge. By shifting to Scott Stadium, Virginia gains a true home-field advantage: familiar routine, no international travel, home crowd support, and none of the logistical disruption both teams would have faced overseas. That matters even more in a season opener, when preparation and comfort tend to carry extra weight. The supporting betting analysis points in the same direction. SportsLine cited NC State’s recent road struggles and Virginia’s strong history as a home favorite against unranked opponents in backing UVA to cover. Other projections also cluster around a close Virginia win at home, including SP+ and several published score models in the 4- to 5-point range, which aligns closely with the current line. The relocation does not necessarily turn the game into a mismatch. At -5.5, it remains one of the tighter spreads on the Week 0 board and reflects that NC State still has a credible chance to keep it close or even win outright. But the venue change appears to have pushed the balance toward Virginia, making the Cavaliers’ home advantage a central factor in the market.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 24

Virginia -5.5 and New Mexico State +31.5 emerged as two of SportsLine’s top Week 0 against-the-spread picks after the model simulated every FBS matchup 10,000 times.
The model favors Virginia to cover against NC State because the Cavaliers went 6-1 ATS in their last seven season openers versus unranked teams, while the Wolfpack were 0-4 ATS as road underdogs in 2025 and 0-4 ATS in season openers.
New Mexico State covers in nearly 70% of simulations at Florida State, with the Aggies entering on a three-game underdog cover streak and FSU closing 2025 at 2-7 both outright and against the spread.
Florida State’s offseason quarterback addition, Ashton Daniels, adds uncertainty rather than reassurance: he is 5-18 as a starter since 2023 with a 116.5 passer efficiency, the fourth-worst mark in FBS over that span.
Week 0 features eight FBS games on Aug. 29, from North Carolina-TCU in Dublin to Memphis-UNLV in Las Vegas, with USC -38.5 over San Jose State the board’s biggest spread.