US Kindergartners' Measles Risk Jumps Over 50% Since 2019 as Exemptions Hit 4.2%
Updated
Updated · Forbes · Aug 24
US Kindergartners' Measles Risk Jumps Over 50% Since 2019 as Exemptions Hit 4.2%
3 articles · Updated · Forbes · Aug 24
Summary
7.6% of U.S. kindergartners now lack a complete MMR series, up from 4.8% in 2019-20, while national coverage slipped to 92.4% for 2025-26—below the roughly 93% immunity level at which measles is expected to stop spreading in schools.
4.2% of kindergartners hold vaccine exemptions, up from 3.6% a year earlier in the biggest single-year increase in 15 years; about 157,000 children now have exemptions, almost all non-medical.
More than 50,000 schools in a new national database show the decline is highly uneven, with exemptions clustering geographically and private schools often posting the lowest coverage—some private schools in South Dakota and Idaho fall between 40% and 60%.
School-level modeling placed all seven U.S. measles outbreak sites from 2017 to 2026 in the top tenth of susceptible schools in their states, while county-level estimates identified only three, suggesting local averages can miss where outbreaks start.
2,777 measles cases had been confirmed across 47 jurisdictions as of Aug. 20, already above all of 2025, and the Pan American Health Organization is due in November to rule on whether the U.S. keeps the elimination status it has held since 2000.
Could hidden school clusters of unvaccinated children cost the U.S. its measles elimination status this November?
Why are seemingly safe neighborhoods secretly harboring the highest risks for massive measles outbreaks?
What is driving the alarming surge of non-medical vaccine exemptions hidden within America's private schools?
The 2025–2026 Measles Surge: Record Outbreaks, Falling Vaccination Rates, and the Fight for U.S. Public Health
Overview
A sharp decline in routine childhood immunizations in the United States has led to a record-breaking measles resurgence, with thousands of cases and the country on the verge of losing its elimination status. Falling MMR vaccine coverage among kindergartners has left hundreds of thousands of children unprotected, while policy changes and easier non-medical exemptions have fueled confusion and further reduced vaccination rates. Misinformation, especially online, has increased public hesitancy and allowed false claims about vaccines to spread, causing some parents to skip other routine shots as well. As a result, not only measles but also diseases like whooping cough are making a comeback, putting medically vulnerable children at serious risk and threatening decades of public health progress.