Updated

Updated · POLITICO Europe · Aug 24

AfD's Ulrich Siegmund Poised to Win Sept. 6 Saxony-Anhalt Vote, Break Germany's Firewall

Updated

Updated · POLITICO Europe · Aug 24

AfD's Ulrich Siegmund Poised to Win Sept. 6 Saxony-Anhalt Vote, Break Germany's Firewall

Q: Could a failed tactical voting campaign accidentally give Germany's far-right its first absolute majority?

Yes. In Saxony-Anhalt, a tactical-voting push meant to stop the AfD could backfire if it misfires or fragments the anti-AfD vote. The risk comes from Germany’s 5% threshold. Polls put the AfD at roughly 41% to 43%, with the CDU around 23% and the Left near 13%, while the SPD is only around 6% to 7% and the Greens, BSW and FDP are hovering at or below 5%. If several smaller parties fail to enter parliament, their votes are discarded for seat allocation. That can inflate the AfD’s share of seats well beyond its raw vote share and potentially hand it an absolute majority. That is the logic behind the “Taktisch Wählen” campaign, which urges voters to shore up the SPD and Greens so fewer votes are wasted. But the strategy is controversial because it recommends only some non-AfD parties and may pull support away from others that are also near the threshold, especially BSW or even the SPD itself if the campaign confuses or alienates voters. In a tight race, small shifts can decide whether one more party gets into parliament — and that can decide whether the AfD governs alone. Current modeling suggests an AfD absolute majority is plausible but not the likeliest outcome; one forecast cited gives it about a 30% chance. So the campaign is responding to a real mathematical danger. But if tactical voting is poorly targeted, distrusted as partisan, or fails to lift enough parties over 5%, it could inadvertently help produce exactly the result it is trying to prevent.

3 articles · Updated · POLITICO Europe · Aug 24

Sept. 6 could deliver the AfD its first outright state-level governing majority, putting Ulrich Siegmund on track to become premier of Saxony-Anhalt.
That result would break the political “firewall” that has kept the far-right party out of every federal and state government since its 2013 founding.
A Siegmund victory would force Chancellor Friedrich Merz into direct dealings with an AfD leader and mark a historic breakthrough for the party.
Germany’s political system faces a sharp test if Saxony-Anhalt becomes the first state to hand the AfD full governing power.

Sources

Left67%

Center33%

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Saxony-Anhalt 2026: The AfD’s Historic Surge, Electoral Math, and the Future of German Democracy

Overview

The September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt election marks a turning point as the AfD, fueled by deep economic hardship, cultural alienation, and savvy digital outreach, surges to record poll numbers. With minor parties struggling to cross the 5% threshold, the AfD could win an outright majority, breaking postwar political norms and triggering a domino effect across Germany. The CDU’s strict refusal to cooperate with the AfD forces awkward coalitions, blurring party lines and driving more voters to extremes. If victorious, the AfD’s radical agenda would face strong civil resistance and federal countermeasures, while its entry into the Bundesrat could disrupt both German and European politics.

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