California Coast Faces 1-Foot Flood Risk as 95% Likely Super El Niño Meets King Tides
Updated
Updated · Los Angeles Times · Aug 24
California Coast Faces 1-Foot Flood Risk as 95% Likely Super El Niño Meets King Tides
3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Aug 24
Summary
Officials say California could see its highest coastal sea levels on record this winter, with flooding, erosion and wave damage already building before El Niño reaches full strength.
A 95% likely super El Niño can lift offshore waters by up to 1 foot, stacking on roughly 1 foot of long-term sea-level rise in San Francisco Bay and making drainage from heavy rain harder.
Tides this week were already running 4 to 9 inches above forecasts at sites from San Diego to Humboldt County, a sign that elevated water levels are arriving early.
Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve and Jan. 22 are expected to bring the highest king tides, amplified by lunar cycles near their peaks and raising the odds of overtopping in low-lying beach communities.
Scientists say the setup echoes destructive El Niño winters such as 1982-83 and 1997-98, while forecasters also expect above-average California precipitation in January through March.
If king tides and El Niño perfectly align, could California's century-old infrastructure trigger the most catastrophic flooding in state history?
With seawalls potentially worsening coastal erosion, what hidden dangers await California's shoreline properties when the next mega-storm hits?
As rising seas swallow tidal marshes, will California's desperate race to adapt be enough to save its rapidly vanishing coastline?
Unprecedented Flooding in California: How El Niño, King Tides, and Climate Change Are Driving a $96 Billion Coastal Emergency
Overview
During the winter of 2025–2026, California faced a historic convergence of powerful atmospheric rivers, a record-breaking El Niño, and rare king tides, all amplified by long-term sea level rise from climate change. These forces combined to cause deadly storms, widespread flooding, and infrastructure failures, especially in Marin County and the Bay Area. Elevated ocean levels blocked stormwater drainage, worsening neighborhood flooding. The crisis exposed major gaps in flood insurance and outdated risk maps, leaving many homeowners financially vulnerable. Meanwhile, coastal erosion and infrastructure decay accelerated, highlighting the urgent need for both engineered and nature-based solutions to protect communities and ecosystems.