Updated
Updated · MarketPulse · Aug 22
NZD, AUD Lead 1.57% FX Rally Against Dollar as Traders Ignore Hawkish Fed Minutes
Updated
Updated · MarketPulse · Aug 22

NZD, AUD Lead 1.57% FX Rally Against Dollar as Traders Ignore Hawkish Fed Minutes

3 articles · Updated · MarketPulse · Aug 22

Summary

  • NZD/USD jumped 1.57% and AUD/USD gained 1.33% in the Aug. 17-21 week as a midweek dollar sell-off lifted major currencies broadly.
  • Fed minutes showed three dissents for an immediate 25-basis-point hike, but traders treated them as stale and focused instead on cooler U.S. inflation and job data.
  • FedWatch pricing for the Sept. 16 meeting swung back to a 60%-70% probability for a 350-375 bps target rate by Aug. 21, reinforcing expectations for easier Fed policy.
  • Canada's July CPI accelerated to 3.0%, helping push USD/CAD down about 0.2% to 1.3850, while Australia's 15,800 job loss sent unemployment to 4.5% before the broader dollar retreat lifted AUD.
  • The move extends a week of dollar weakness that had already been amplified by concern over U.S. Treasury bond buybacks ahead of Jackson Hole.

Insights

Will the U.S. Treasury's controversial bond buybacks permanently shatter global confidence in the dollar?
Could Japan's looming interest rate hike finally trigger a massive collapse of the lucrative global carry trade?
Are unconventional debt management tactics secretly masking a much deeper liquidity crisis in the bond market?