Updated
Updated · Quartz · Aug 21
Bessent Says US Deficit Has Peaked as National Debt Tops $40 Trillion
Updated
Updated · Quartz · Aug 21

Bessent Says US Deficit Has Peaked as National Debt Tops $40 Trillion

3 articles · Updated · Quartz · Aug 21

Summary

  • $40 trillion in national debt did not stop Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from saying the Trump-era budget deficit has "very good" odds of already having crested.
  • That claim comes after July's $432 billion shortfall—the largest monthly gap in more than five years—and a fiscal-year deficit nearing $1.8 trillion, both above year-earlier levels.
  • Bessent said he, President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russell Vought are pursuing fiscal-consolidation measures worth hundreds of billions of dollars, while expecting tariff revenue this fiscal year to roughly match 2025.
  • The debt has doubled in a decade and jumped from $39 trillion to $40 trillion in about five months, far earlier than a 2023 CBO forecast that had not expected that mark until 2028.
  • Rising borrowing costs are adding pressure: interest is set to exceed $1 trillion this fiscal year, and with 30-year Treasury yields near 20-year highs, the Treasury plans to double buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt.

Insights

With billions in potential tariff refunds looming, has the U.S. budget deficit actually peaked, or is the worst yet to come?
Can the U.S. truly grow its way out of a $40 trillion debt while aggressive tariffs threaten to shrink long-term economic output?
Are the Treasury’s unusual bond buybacks a masterstroke for market liquidity, or a desperate measure masking a deeper financial crisis?