152 Polymarket Wallets Won $8 Million on 97.2% Hit Rate as Trump Jr. Ties Surface
Updated
Updated · Responsible Statecraft · Aug 21
152 Polymarket Wallets Won $8 Million on 97.2% Hit Rate as Trump Jr. Ties Surface
3 articles · Updated · Responsible Statecraft · Aug 21
Summary
$8 million in collective profits went to 152 “Orca” Polymarket wallets that a new report says likely used inside military information to bet on U.S. defense operations, including the June 2025 strikes on Iran.
A 97.2% success rate and repeated well-timed wagers before military actions or Iran-related announcements fueled concerns that traders were exploiting nonpublic information visible on Polymarket’s public markets.
Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket, and Reuters said the findings intensify scrutiny as he and Eric Trump also hold defense-linked investments tied to drone and counter-drone firms with military contracts.
One cited case involved Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket tied to the January 3 operation in Venezuela; he has pleaded not guilty.
The report adds to national-security alarms that foreign intelligence services could monitor unusual betting activity, while lawmakers weigh broader bans on government officials and members of Congress using prediction markets.