3 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Aug 7
Summary
A 1-point Michigan Senate primary win by Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong’s lead in Wisconsin are fueling talk that 2028 Democrats could move left, but centrist analysts say those results are being overread.
Third Way argues the primary gains mask general-election risk: El-Sayed underperformed with white non-college voters in a swing state, while Hong’s past rhetoric on prisons and Thanksgiving could be weaponized in November.
The warning draws on 2024, when polls found Kamala Harris was seen as “too liberal” by an 18-point wider margin than Trump was seen as “too conservative” among working-class voters.
That matters because 42% of the electorate identifies as moderate, versus 23% liberal, and Democrats likely need about 60% of moderates to win the presidency.
The broader takeaway for 2028 hopefuls is that presidential primaries differ from midterm contests, with electability against a likely Republican nominee expected to outweigh ideological purity.