Will a controversial challenger's focus on everyday costs be enough to unseat a three-decade incumbent losing her crossover appeal?

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Probably not by itself. A message centered on housing, healthcare and the cost of living clearly resonates in Maine, and it targets a real vulnerability for Susan Collins: some former Democratic and independent supporters now question whether she is still the moderate they once believed she was. Polling and voter interviews suggest affordability is a top concern, and Collins’ crossover appeal appears softer than in past races. But unseating a three-decade incumbent requires more than a strong issue frame. Collins still has major advantages: near-universal name recognition, a long record of delivering federal money to Maine, and a reputation among many voters as pragmatic and independent even when she aligns with Republicans most of the time. She also survived a similarly hostile environment in 2020, when public polls underestimated her strength. For Graham Platner, the problem is that his economic message competes with doubts about his own candidacy. Reports about old online comments, the tattoo controversy and allegations about past conduct made him a risky vessel for an otherwise potent affordability argument. Even favorable polling came with warnings that he was less known and more vulnerable as more information emerged. His later withdrawal underscored that weakness. The broader lesson for Democrats is that Collins looks more beatable than usual if her crossover support continues to erode, especially in a state unhappy with national conditions. But a challenger’s focus o…

Democratic Voters Reconsider Susan Collins Support 6 Years After Backing Her in 2020

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Democratic Voters Reconsider Susan Collins Support 6 Years After Backing Her in 2020

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