Post-Putin Russia Would Emerge Weaker and Less Aggressive After 25 Years of Centralized Rule
Updated
Updated · Atlantic Council · Aug 7
Post-Putin Russia Would Emerge Weaker and Less Aggressive After 25 Years of Centralized Rule
3 articles · Updated · Atlantic Council · Aug 7
Summary
A post-Putin Russia would likely be weaker, more divided and temporarily less able to wage war in Ukraine or threaten neighboring states, the analysis argues.
Putin’s 25-year power vertical may not survive him: his isolation, advancing age and lack of an obvious heir point instead to a fractured succession among rival security agencies, military factions and regional bosses.
That erosion of Kremlin control would probably curb Russia’s resources, political will and hybrid warfare capacity, giving Ukraine and Europe more time to strengthen defenses.
Fears that a weakened successor state would be more likely to use nuclear weapons are overstated, the piece says, noting similar warnings during the 1991 Soviet collapse did not materialize.
The outlook remains only cautiously optimistic: Russia would still likely stay authoritarian and centralized, but with reduced capacity for external aggression during a contested transition.