Ned Davis Flags 5 Bear Signals as 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4.64%
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Aug 6
Ned Davis Flags 5 Bear Signals as 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4.64%
2 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Aug 6
Summary
Ned Davis Research told clients a secular bear market could be approaching even as US stocks sit at record highs, warning a prolonged downturn could end the bull run that has broadly lasted since 2009.
Five signals drove the call: US stocks are trailing emerging markets, tech has started to lag, valuations are near dot-com-era extremes, government spending and deficits are rising, and Treasury yields are climbing.
Market data cited by the firm show the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up 16% this year versus the S&P 500's 12%, while the iShares US Technology ETF has fallen 3% from its recent peak and S&P 500 energy has gained 7% in a month.
Rates and fiscal trends add to the warning, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.64%, the 30-year near 5.18%, government spending around 22% of GDP in 2025, and the federal deficit at $1.4 trillion through June.
NDR said those conditions resemble setups before the 1929 and early-2000s peaks, when stretched valuations and weakening leadership preceded long periods of stock underperformance.