U.S. Payrolls Seen Rising 83,000 in July as 3.5% Wage Growth Lags Inflation
Updated
Updated · NBC News · Aug 7
U.S. Payrolls Seen Rising 83,000 in July as 3.5% Wage Growth Lags Inflation
3 articles · Updated · NBC News · Aug 7
Summary
83,000 jobs are expected to have been added in July, up from 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.2%.
3.5% annual wage growth is seen matching June and trailing 3.5% inflation after energy costs stayed elevated during the U.S.-Iran war; regular gasoline averages $4.06 a gallon, up 36% since Feb. 28.
Education and health services are expected to lead hiring again, with economists also looking for rebounds in leisure and hospitality, professional services and modest gains in manufacturing.
Forecasts remain split: KPMG sees 100,000 jobs, Bank of America 80,000, while Vanguard's payroll-based data points to near-zero growth and roughly 9,000 added jobs.
A stronger report could bolster expectations for a September Fed rate hike, with futures already implying more than a 50% chance as policymakers prioritize returning inflation to 2%.