Warren Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway’s 2026 annual meeting that much of today’s market looks like “gambling,” warning that many asset prices have become “very silly.”
The warning rests on stretched valuations: Buffett’s preferred market-cap-to-GDP gauge has climbed to 232%, above the roughly 200% level where he has said investors are “playing with fire.”
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has also stayed above 40 since May, a zone previously seen only near the dot-com bubble peak above 44.
History does not show when a pullback will hit, but it suggests overvalued markets can still reward investors who stick to fairly priced companies with strong fundamentals.
Since 2000, the S&P 500 has returned more than 700%, underscoring Buffett’s broader point that long-term quality holdings can outlast volatility.