JPMorgan Downgrades Nike on $1 Billion China Sales Hit by 2028
Updated
Updated · Stocktwits · Aug 4
JPMorgan Downgrades Nike on $1 Billion China Sales Hit by 2028
1 articles · Updated · Stocktwits · Aug 4
Summary
Nike shares fell more than 3% premarket after JPMorgan cut the stock to Underweight from Neutral and warned its China strategy could create a $1 billion revenue headwind in fiscal 2028.
JPMorgan said Nike's 2026 “Win Now” decisions will hurt profits into 2028, largely because online sales at Topsports and Pou Sheng are set to end as Nike shifts China digital sales to its own channels from January 2027.
The bank cut its second-half 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates to 20% below consensus and set a $40 price target, implying more than 6% downside from the prior close.
Morningstar took a longer-term view, saying the China move may dent near-term sales but could help Nike restore brand health, return to growth and reach a more typical 31% EBIT margin in fiscal 2028.
Nike stock is already under pressure, down 33% this year and 43% over 12 months, while Wall Street sentiment remains mostly neutral with 25 of 39 analysts rating it Hold or better.