Ukraine Fails to Down 28 Russian Missiles After Interceptor Stocks Run Dry

Q: As reciprocal strikes escalate, what unconfirmed intermediate-range ballistic missiles might Russia deploy next to bypass strained defenses?

The most likely unconfirmed missile Russia could deploy next is the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. That assessment comes from the related reporting, which says analysts have warned Moscow may further escalate with Oreshnik use as Ukraine’s Patriot-based ballistic defenses are stretched. Ukrainian Air Force warnings and later battlefield reporting in the provided material describe a “high probability” of another Oreshnik launch and say Russia has already used it in several strikes on Ukraine, including against Dnipro, Lviv and Bila Tserkva. Oreshnik matters because it is presented by Russia as a nuclear-capable IRBM designed to evade air defenses at hypersonic speed, reportedly around Mach 10, with multiple reentry vehicles or submunitions. Western and Ukrainian analysts cited in the material say it is likely derived from the RS-26 Rubezh/Yars family. Even when fitted with inert or conventional payloads rather than nuclear warheads, it can complicate interception by saturating or bypassing missile defenses. That does not mean deployment is certain. Much of the technical detail remains opaque, and several claims about performance come from Russian official statements that cannot be independently verified. But based on the materials provided, Oreshnik is the clearest candidate if Russia seeks a next-step ballistic escalation aimed at overwhelming Kyiv’s already strained defenses.

3 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Aug 5

Kyiv's air defenses shot down none of the Russian missiles fired early Wednesday, days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had no interceptors left.
28 missiles and 115 drones hit Kyiv and surrounding areas, killing at least 17 people, wounding 44 and setting off strikes and fires across civilian sites.
Ukraine depends on U.S.-made systems as its only way to stop Russian ballistic missiles, and Zelensky said partners' delays in supplying interceptors were causing "horrific casualties and destruction."
The barrage underscored how Russia is exploiting depleted Ukrainian air defenses as Kyiv presses allies for more anti-ballistic systems.