Pacific Could Close in 200-300 Million Years, Forming Amasia

2 articles · Updated · ScienceBlog.com · Aug 1

A 2022 supercomputer study led by Curtin University projected the Pacific Ocean could close in 200 to 300 million years, pulling the continents into a new supercontinent called Amasia.
155 million square kilometers of Pacific basin are slowly narrowing because subduction zones around the Ring of Fire are consuming ocean crust faster than the East Pacific Rise creates new seafloor.
The Mariana Trench—nearly 11,000 meters deep—marks the same subduction process driving that long-term closure, while the Atlantic is widening by a few centimeters a year.
Scientists do not all agree on the end state: some deep-time models close the Atlantic instead, but they broadly share the view that continents and ocean basins keep rearranging over geologic time.
This shift is unrelated to sea-level change or climate change and unfolds far beyond any human timescale, making the Pacific effectively permanent for modern life despite its slow contraction.