New Zealand Jobless Rate Seen Rising to 5.5% as Wage Growth Lags at 2%
Updated
Updated · RNZ · Aug 4
New Zealand Jobless Rate Seen Rising to 5.5% as Wage Growth Lags at 2%
3 articles · Updated · RNZ · Aug 4
Summary
5.4%-5.5% unemployment is forecast for New Zealand’s June quarter, up from 5.3% in March and near an 11-year high ahead of data due on Aug. 5.
US-Iran war fallout, an oil-price shock and broader global uncertainty have slowed activity, leaving firms largely holding staff but pausing hiring as workforce growth outpaces job creation.
2% annual wage growth is expected to stay well below 4.1% inflation, reinforcing signs of a soft labour market even if economists think unemployment may be close to its peak.
The weak jobs picture is not expected to stop the RBNZ from raising rates further, though subdued wages reduce the risk of a wage-price spiral and may limit how far the OCR needs to rise.