Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 4
European Olive Oil Prices Set to Rise as Spain's Cereal Crop Drops to 18.5 Million Tonnes
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 4

European Olive Oil Prices Set to Rise as Spain's Cereal Crop Drops to 18.5 Million Tonnes

1 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Aug 4

Summary

  • Olive oil producers expect prices to climb again this autumn as extreme heat, drought and fires cut edible fruit and threaten next year's production volumes.
  • UK extra-virgin olive oil already averages above £7 a litre, and producers say drought-stressed trees in Spain may shed fruit while earlier harvesting could tighten supply further.
  • Crop damage is spreading beyond olives: Spain's 2026-27 cereal harvest is forecast at just over 18.5 million tonnes versus 24 million last year, while the EU cut sunflower forecasts by 7% and maize by 6%.
  • France says thousands of tonnes of vegetables worth tens of millions of euros have been lost, with some crops expected to be halved; Champagne growers also expect harvest to start around 15 August with yields 10% below last year.
  • The heatwave's impact is uneven—Italy's wheat crop and Romania's maize outlook are stronger, and Turkey is a regional bright spot—but farmers across Europe warn higher production costs and lower yields will keep food prices under pressure.

Insights

Is Europe heading for a new era of pricier food as heat, drought and wildfire slash harvests from France to Spain?
With most climate-driven crop losses uninsured, who will pay when extreme weather keeps shrinking Europe’s harvests?
If even Champagne grapes and Spanish cereals are failing, is Europe’s farm system built for a climate that no longer exists?