NASA Rules Out 2024 YR4 Moon Impact, Says Asteroid Will Miss by 21,200 Kilometers
Updated
Updated · spacedaily.com · Aug 3
NASA Rules Out 2024 YR4 Moon Impact, Says Asteroid Will Miss by 21,200 Kilometers
3 articles · Updated · spacedaily.com · Aug 3
Summary
Webb observations taken in February let NASA eliminate any chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon in 2032, replacing earlier concern with a projected pass about 21,200 kilometers from the lunar surface.
4.3% lunar-impact odds had risen only because YR4's path was still poorly pinned down; sharper tracking data made the risk vanish rather than any change in the asteroid's actual course.
2024 YR4, estimated at 53 to 67 meters across, had also briefly reached a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth after its December 2024 discovery before that threat dropped to effectively zero.
The episode underscores the main planetary-defense lesson from NASA's 2022 DART strike on Dimorphos: deflection can work, but only if astronomers detect and track a threat early enough.
DART proved an asteroid can be pushed off course, but would the same method work on a larger, denser object actually heading for Earth?
Why did NASA’s DART move Dimorphos 33 minutes instead of seven—and what will Hera reveal about the hidden physics behind that surprise?
The 2024 YR4 Crisis: How JWST and Global Coordination Averted a 2032 Lunar Impact
Overview
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, initially sparked global alarm when early calculations showed a real risk of Earth impact in 2032, triggering the first-ever international asteroid alert and a worldwide telescope mobilization. As more data was gathered, the threat to Earth was ruled out, but a lingering chance of a lunar collision remained. When the asteroid faded from ground-based view, astronomers used the James Webb Space Telescope to pinpoint its position, ultimately proving it would safely miss the Moon. This campaign showcased the power of international cooperation and advanced technology in planetary defense.