Prediction Markets Near $200 Million Settled as $3.2 Billion Flooded 2024 Presidential Election Bets
Updated
Updated · Ballotpedia News · Aug 3
Prediction Markets Near $200 Million Settled as $3.2 Billion Flooded 2024 Presidential Election Bets
2 articles · Updated · Ballotpedia News · Aug 3
Summary
$200 million in election-cycle prediction contracts have been settled, according to an NBC News analysis of markets where users trade on political outcomes.
$3.2 billion was wagered on 2024 presidential contracts on Polymarket alone, underscoring how heavily traders used these platforms to price election probabilities.
Polymarket data for 504 2026 congressional and gubernatorial general elections shows Democrats favored in 264 races and Republicans in 236, with most contests priced at 81% or higher for one party.
Seventy races are viewed as more competitive, including Texas' 15th House race at 50% for Bobby Pulido versus 48% for Rep. Monica De La Cruz and the Texas Senate race at 56% for Ken Paxton versus 44% for James Talarico.
Prediction markets remain speculative rather than predictive guarantees, though research on the Iowa Presidential Stock Market found market prices beat polls about three-fourths of the time from 1988 to 2004.