Australia's 30-Year Property Super-Cycle Nears End as Capital City Values Drop 0.9%
Updated
Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Aug 3
Australia's 30-Year Property Super-Cycle Nears End as Capital City Values Drop 0.9%
3 articles · Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Aug 3
Summary
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Australia’s 30-year housing boom has probably ended, with prices likely to tread water for a decade rather than resume sharp gains.
Cotality data showed capital city values fell 0.9% last month — the weakest market since 2022 — led by Sydney’s 1.7% drop and Melbourne’s 1.4% decline.
Higher interest rates, record-poor affordability, slower immigration and federal tax changes are weighing on demand, and Oliver expects prices to ease another 7% through next year.
Even after that, values would remain stretched above long-run trends — 41% in Sydney, 65% in Brisbane and 25% in Melbourne — while median house values in five capitals still top A$1 million.
KPMG expects a milder 1.1% national fall this year before a 3.4% rebound in 2027, arguing chronic housing shortages, low rental vacancies and weak supply will eventually lift prices again.