Economists See 6.5% Mortgage Rates Persisting as 70% of Homeowners Stay Locked Into 5% Loans
Updated
Updated · HousingWire · Jul 31
Economists See 6.5% Mortgage Rates Persisting as 70% of Homeowners Stay Locked Into 5% Loans
3 articles · Updated · HousingWire · Jul 31
Summary
Mortgage rates are expected to average about 6.5% for the next three years, with Realtor.com and JBREC seeing roughly 6.3%-6.4% in the near term even if Middle East tensions ease.
Affordability is improving only modestly: the typical monthly mortgage payment slipped to $2,095 in 2026 from $2,135 last year, and median new-home prices fell 2.7% in June while existing-home prices rose 1.8%.
About 70% of homeowners hold mortgages at 5.0% or below, keeping many from selling and extending the lock-in effect for at least five more years unless rates fall back to 5.0%.
Renting still costs far less than buying, with ownership payments about 37% higher than rent for the same property, though that gap is narrowing in some markets as rents soften and home prices flatten.
Regional splits remain stark: Florida and much of the Southeast have turned into buyers' markets, while parts of the Northeast and Midwest stay supply-constrained, reinforcing estimates of a 4 million-home shortfall.