Dolphin peaked at 165 mph with a 910 mb central pressure Thursday, becoming the strongest typhoon on record to form so close to the International Date Line.
Less than 36 hours after it was only a tropical storm, 84°F-86°F waters and light 5-10 knot wind shear drove explosive intensification into the season’s third western Pacific super typhoon.
JTWC expects Dolphin to hold near 160 mph through the weekend while moving west-northwest around 13 mph, then weaken gradually over cooler waters and possible dry-air intrusion.
By Monday, the Ogasawara Islands could face a Category 3 approach, though the storm should stay more than 620 miles south of Tokyo and remain south of mainland Japan next week.
Late next week, Dolphin could enter the East China Sea and approach eastern China as a Category 1 or 2 storm with a broader wind field, raising storm-surge risk.