Ned Davis Sees S&P 500 at 8,000 as One More Fed Hike Spurs Q3 Pullback
Updated
Updated · CNBCTV18 · Jul 24
Ned Davis Sees S&P 500 at 8,000 as One More Fed Hike Spurs Q3 Pullback
1 articles · Updated · CNBCTV18 · Jul 24
Summary
Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research said the S&P 500 could reach 7,900-8,000 by year-end after a third-quarter consolidation, with one more Fed rate hike likely before the rally resumes.
September is the leading window for that hike, he said, arguing a "one-and-done" move would fit a pattern in which stocks wobble ahead of tightening and recover once further hikes look unlikely.
Third-quarter weakness is being driven by investors reassessing geopolitical risk, surging crude prices, a 4.7% US 10-year yield and an 82% market-implied chance of a September hike after a strong second-quarter run.
Clissold said higher oil prices matter more than physical shortages because they can lift inflation, shape Fed decisions and slow US growth, though he expects policymakers to avoid pushing the economy into recession before November elections.