Gulf Producers Plan 7.3 Million Bpd Hormuz Bypass by 2028 as War Exposes New Risks
Updated
Updated · CBS New York · Jul 23
Gulf Producers Plan 7.3 Million Bpd Hormuz Bypass by 2028 as War Exposes New Risks
3 articles · Updated · CBS New York · Jul 23
Summary
Seven major pipeline projects across the Gulf could add 3.8 million barrels a day by end-2027 and 7.3 million by end-2028, letting about 60% of prewar Gulf oil exports bypass Hormuz if needed.
Iran’s chokehold on the strait has pushed existing alternatives near full capacity: Saudi Arabia’s East-West line and the UAE’s Fujairah route had only 3.5 million to 5.5 million bpd of spare room before the war.
Abu Dhabi is accelerating a $3 billion, 200-mile pipeline that would raise Fujairah supply by more than 1.2 million bpd, while Iraq is advancing routes from Basra to Turkey, Syria and Jordan after cutting output.
Those workarounds still face threats: Houthi rebels said they attacked Yanbu and have previously hit the Saudi East-West pipeline, while Red Sea and Suez routes are longer, costlier and less suitable for the largest tankers.
Pipelines also do nothing for LNG, about one-fifth of which transited Hormuz before the war, leaving Asian buyers especially exposed.
With oil flows rerouted, how will the world replace the massive volume of LNG still trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint?
As Gulf nations build pipelines to bypass Hormuz, are they just creating new, more vulnerable targets for attack on land?
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Gulf Bypass Pipelines, Global Supply Chains, and Geopolitical Upheaval
Overview
The Strait of Hormuz crisis began with escalating military actions between Iran and the United States, including reported strikes on military sites and claims by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of targeting US bases across the region. Iran’s IRGC asserted control over maritime traffic in the Strait, but this was quickly disputed by US Central Command, which maintained that the waterway remained open with US military support. These events highlighted the vulnerability of global energy and trade routes, prompting Gulf states to urgently seek alternative export channels and invest in new infrastructure to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.