Updated

Updated · wpde.com · Jul 22

Ralph Norman Leads South Carolina Senate Primary Poll With 18.6% as 26.3% Remain Undecided

Updated

Updated · wpde.com · Jul 22

Ralph Norman Leads South Carolina Senate Primary Poll With 18.6% as 26.3% Remain Undecided

Q: As a runoff seems inevitable, which candidate has the best path to reaching the 50% threshold?

Ralph Norman appears to have the clearest path into a runoff, but Darline Graham may have the stronger path to winning one if President Donald Trump’s backing fully consolidates late-deciding voters. The new Innovative Communication Strategies poll puts Norman narrowly ahead at 18.6%, with Graham at 16.3% and Russell Fry at 11.7%, while 26.3% remain undecided. That makes it highly unlikely anyone reaches 50% on Aug. 11, especially with a crowded field and Norman’s lead still within the 3.5-point margin of error. Norman’s advantage is that he already has a measurable base and strong regional footing in the Upstate, giving him the most straightforward route to finishing in the top two. Graham’s case is different. She is close enough to Norman in the current poll and has room to grow, particularly among women and in the Lowcountry, where a third of voters are still undecided. More importantly, other polling and campaign context suggest Trump’s endorsement could be decisive. Among Republican primary voters, his standing is very strong, and a large share of undecided voters say his endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. That gives Graham a potentially powerful consolidation lane in a one-on-one runoff. Fry has a viable regional base in the Myrtle Beach market, but at 11.7% he has more ground to make up statewide. So the best reading is that Norman has the best path to making the runoff, while Graham may have the best path to winning it.

2 articles · Updated · wpde.com · Jul 22

Ralph Norman drew 18.6% support in a new independent poll of South Carolina’s Republican special Senate primary, ahead of Darline Graham at 16.3% and Russell Fry at 11.7%.
The 2.3-point edge falls inside the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error, underscoring how unsettled the Aug. 11 contest remains.
A sizable 26.3% of likely GOP primary voters said they are still undecided, with uncertainty especially high in the Lowcountry, where 33% had not chosen a candidate.
Regional and demographic splits were sharp: Norman led the Upstate with 26%, Fry took 39% in the Myrtle Beach media market, and Graham led among women with 22%.
The July 20-21 poll surveyed 788 verified Republican voters from the June 9 election; it also tested Nancy Mace at 6.5%, though she later said she does not plan to run.