Opta Picks Rams as 2026 Super Bowl Favorites at 19.9% as Bills, Chiefs, Ravens Slip
Updated
Updated · The Analyst · Jul 20
Opta Picks Rams as 2026 Super Bowl Favorites at 19.9% as Bills, Chiefs, Ravens Slip
1 articles · Updated · The Analyst · Jul 20
Summary
Los Angeles opens as Opta’s clear 2026 favorite with 11.7 expected wins, an 89.5% playoff chance and a 19.9% shot at the Super Bowl after adding Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett.
Those projections reflect a model built from thousands of simulations using player ratings, depth charts, coaching changes and home-field effects, with the NFC West still a major drag on the Rams because Seattle and San Francisco also rate near the top.
New England ranks No. 3 overall with a 7.5% title chance after a 14-3 season and offseason upgrades around Drake Maye, while Detroit is Opta’s top playoff rebound pick among 2025 non-qualifiers.
Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City all land below a 50% playoff chance, with Opta citing roster erosion, quarterback volatility or injury concerns and giving the trio a combined 25% chance to all miss the postseason again.