Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Exceeding $120 as Hormuz Flows Drop Below 45%
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 21
Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Exceeding $120 as Hormuz Flows Drop Below 45%
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 21
Summary
Brent could climb above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Goldman Sachs said, stressing that this is not its base-case forecast.
Persian Gulf oil flows have fallen to below 45% of pre-war levels, the bank said, with escalating Middle East tensions pushing crude prices higher again.
The forecast ties the upside risk directly to continued supply disruption at Hormuz, a chokepoint for Gulf exports, making the duration of the outage the key variable for prices.
Amid the worst oil supply shock in history, could a sudden peace deal create an unexpected market glut and price crash?
Is the Hormuz crisis triggering a permanent shift from global efficiency to costly, localized economic security?
As military strikes escalate, is there any viable path left to diplomatically reopen the world's most critical oil artery?
Global Oil Markets in Turmoil: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Record Supply Loss, and the Race for Energy Security
Overview
As of July 2026, the global oil market is highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, especially disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have led to substantial increases in Brent crude prices and affected related markets like WTI crude. The diesel market is also under pressure, with tight supply conditions made worse by ongoing conflicts, weather risks, and refinery delays, highlighting the fragility of refined product supply chains. These factors contribute to a climate of heightened risk and significant price swings, making it crucial for market participants to closely monitor geopolitical developments and supply-side pressures to navigate ongoing uncertainty.