Hungary Rate-Cut Bets Shrink to 120bp as Forint Stabilizes Above 361
Updated
Updated · TradingPedia · Jul 17
Hungary Rate-Cut Bets Shrink to 120bp as Forint Stabilizes Above 361
1 articles · Updated · TradingPedia · Jul 17
Summary
Hungarian assets took the heaviest selling in emerging markets over recent days, yet EUR/HUF steadied above 361—its highest since mid-May and near post-election levels.
ING linked the selloff to higher oil prices, rising core yields and a broader CEE risk-off move, amplified by crowded long Hungary positions and profit-taking rather than weaker fundamentals.
Rate expectations shifted with the volatility: Hungary’s implied easing cycle was cut from 150bp to 120bp, while Czech pricing moved toward almost two cuts and Poland’s 2026 cut expectations fell to about 20%.
ING still calls the correction overdone, sees value in Hungary’s front-end rates and forint, and expects EUR/HUF to trade mostly in a 350-360 range for the rest of the year.