Robinhood Exchange Overtakes Crypto.com for No. 3 US Prediction Market Share at 4.6%
Updated
Updated · Sportico · Jul 21
Robinhood Exchange Overtakes Crypto.com for No. 3 US Prediction Market Share at 4.6%
3 articles · Updated · Sportico · Jul 21
Summary
Robinhood-owned Rothera climbed to 4.6% of July U.S. prediction-market notional volume, passing Crypto.com-owned Nadex at 2.4% during the World Cup despite skipping the TV ad blitz.
That gain came as the broader market surged: U.S. prediction markets matched May’s roughly $20 billion volume in just a dozen July days after operators spent hundreds of millions on World Cup ads and bonuses.
Kalshi still dominated regulated exchanges with about 83% share through the final, while Polymarket U.S. held second at roughly 10%, showing the tournament expanded the market more than it reshuffled the leaders.
Crypto.com drew more broker-driven flow from partners such as Underdog and Fanatics, but Robinhood benefited from owning its exchange outright, while many Nadex partners are expected to leave once their own venues launch.
The World Cup push also intensified scrutiny: Polymarket reportedly faces a federal probe over advertising, Kalshi has drawn complaints over undisclosed social promotions, and the next competitive test arrives with the NFL season 50 days away.