S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, Nasdaq futures 1.1% and Dow futures 0.4% Monday, even as the U.S. announced fresh attacks on Iran for a ninth straight night.
Brent crude fell $1.64 to $86.46 a barrel and U.S. crude dropped $1.87 to $79.91, but the conflict still pushed average U.S. gasoline prices back above $4 a gallon.
The market's resilience came despite warnings that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, raising the risk of wider supply disruptions if the fighting spreads across the Persian Gulf.
Single-stock moves helped sentiment: Domino's jumped more than 7% after a revenue beat and new buybacks, while AMC surged nearly 15% on record second-quarter sales and profit.
Outside the U.S., AI-related volatility persisted after Moonshot AI's new Kimi K3 model rattled tech shares, sending South Korea's Kospi down 4.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 2.4%.
With war escalating and supply chains breaking, why is Wall Street continuing its rally?
Why are oil prices falling while a major Middle East conflict chokes a vital global waterway?
Is China's new open-source AI the beginning of the end for Western tech dominance?
Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Oil Prices Surge 50% as US-Iran Conflict Reshapes Global Markets
Overview
The report highlights how escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have created significant market volatility, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of the crisis. Although a provisional agreement in June 2026 and a social media announcement by former President Trump briefly fueled optimism and a sense of stability, the lack of clear terms and unresolved disputes quickly led to renewed hostilities. This short-lived optimism gave way to further conflict, impacting global oil supply and prices. The situation underscores how fragile market confidence is when geopolitical risks remain unresolved, and how quickly hopes for stability can fade amid ongoing uncertainty.