Martin Green Backs Under 2.5 Goals in 2026 World Cup Final as Spain Sit at -154

Q: Argentina seeks a historic repeat, while Spain rides a 37-match unbeaten streak. Which legendary run ends today?

One of them ends today by definition: if Spain wins, Argentina’s bid for a historic repeat is over; if Argentina wins, Spain’s 37-match unbeaten streak is snapped. On form, Spain look slightly more likely to be the side that keeps its run alive. They enter the final as the betting favorite, listed at +130 in the 90-minute market and -154 to lift the trophy, while Argentina are +260 in regulation and +134 to win the Cup. Spain’s case is built on the tournament’s best defense: one goal conceded, six clean sheets, and a 13-1 scoring margin. Since World Cup qualifying began last September, they have gone 13 wins and four draws while allowing only four goals. That defensive profile is why SportsLine analyst Martin Green projects a low-scoring final and backs Under 2.5 goals. His view suggests a match likely decided by a narrow margin, which favors the team that has been hardest to break down. Argentina, though, remain dangerous because of Lionel Messi and their proven resilience. Messi, now 39, assisted both goals in the semifinal against England and continues to shape decisive moments. Argentina are also chasing a rare place in history: only Italy and Brazil have won back-to-back men’s World Cups. So the safer evidence-based read is that Argentina’s repeat bid is more at risk, but the final guarantees that one legendary run will end.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 19

Under 2.5 goals at -164 is Martin Green’s lead pick for Sunday’s Argentina-Spain World Cup final, with the SportsLine handicapper also saying he found two plus-money bets and a key x-factor.
Spain enter the match as -154 favorites to lift the Cup and +130 on the 90-minute money line, while Argentina are +134 to win the trophy and +260 in regulation.
Spain’s case rests on defense: they have outscored opponents 13-1 in this tournament with six clean sheets, and since last September have gone 13 wins and four draws while conceding only four goals.
Argentina have scored 19 goals in the competition and chase a fourth world title behind Lionel Messi, while Spain bring a 37-match unbeaten streak into their first World Cup final since 2010.
The final kicks off at 3 p.m. ET in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with the sides level historically at six wins each and two draws from 14 previous meetings.