Wisconsin Faces Level 3 Severe Storm Risk as Air Quality Alert Runs Until Monday Noon

Q: Could the wildfire smoke choking our air also be fueling the severe storms predicted for Monday?

Yes — but probably only at the margins. The main driver of Monday’s severe weather risk in central Wisconsin is the incoming cold front and the unstable, humid air ahead of it, not the smoke itself. Wildfire smoke can influence storms in two competing ways. Its particles can get pulled into clouds and act as cloud condensation nuclei, which can alter cloud growth, rainfall formation and even lightning. Some research suggests that in a very unstable atmosphere, that process can help storms build taller or become more electrically active. But smoke can also work the other way. Thick haze blocks some sunlight, which limits daytime heating at the ground. That can reduce instability and make it harder for storms to intensify, or delay when they form. Forecasters often see smoke act more like a “dimmer switch” on storm energy than a direct fuel source. For Monday in Wisconsin, the forecast severe threat — damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and a possible isolated tornado — is tied much more clearly to the front moving through and the broader storm setup. The smoke may slightly modify how storms develop or how intense they become in spots, but there is no solid evidence that it will be the decisive cause of the severe weather. What is certain is that the smoke remains a separate health hazard through Monday morning, with unhealthy to very unhealthy air quality still expected before conditions improve as winds shift east.

3 articles · Updated · WKOW · Jul 19

Much of Wisconsin is under a 3-of-5 severe storm risk for Monday afternoon and evening, with the rest of the state in 1-of-5 or 2-of-5 zones.
An Air Quality Alert remains in effect until noon Monday as northerly winds push more smoke into the state, with conditions potentially reaching unhealthy levels.
Sunday is expected to stay mostly sunny and warm, with highs largely in the mid-80s to upper 80s before showers and storms develop Monday.
The forecast extends an earlier smoke-and-storm threat tied to wildfire haze and an approaching front, with conditions expected to shift again after Monday.

Sources

WKOW7h ago

Wisconsin: Air Quality Alert, Level 3 Severe Storm Risk Forecast

WSAW1d ago

WSAW Declares First Alert Weather Days for Unhealthy Air Quality and Severe Storms

X12h ago

FirstAlertWeatherDays has been issued for impacts from wildfire smoke, and an enhanced risk of severe storms Monday PM-evening. Damaging winds, hail, and a chance of isolated tornadoes with severe storms later Monday. #

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Wisconsin Faces Level 3 Severe Storm Risk as Air Quality Alert Runs Until Monday Noon

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