Anthony Rizzo Snags Michael Busch's 1st-Inning Homer, His 2nd Wrigley Catch in 2 Seasons

Q: Did former Cub Anthony Rizzo keep the home run ball hit by his successor?

Yes. Anthony Rizzo kept the home run ball hit by current Cubs first baseman Michael Busch. The ball came on Busch’s first-inning solo homer against the Twins at Wrigley Field on July 18, 2026. Rizzo, sitting in the right-field bleachers during the Cubs’ 2016 championship reunion weekend, ended up with the ball after it landed at his feet in a scramble among fans. He then held it up from the stands, with teammates nearby reacting in disbelief. That made it the second time Rizzo has come away with a home run ball as a spectator at Wrigley, an extremely unusual feat for any fan, let alone a former star player catching one at his old ballpark. The moment drew extra attention because Busch now plays the same position Rizzo once held for the Cubs. There is no indication in the reporting that Rizzo gave the ball back or passed it along. The available accounts say he secured it and kept it.

Q: Is Rizzo's double catch the most improbable fan event in baseball history?

Probably not, but it belongs in the conversation. Rizzo’s feat is extraordinarily unlikely on its face: a retired star, back at Wrigley as a spectator, catching a Cubs home run ball in the bleachers for the second time in roughly two seasons. The context makes it even stranger. He was at a 2016 reunion, sitting with former teammates, and the ball came off the bat of Michael Busch, the Cubs’ current first baseman at Rizzo’s old position. By any common-sense standard, that is a remarkable coincidence. But calling it the single most improbable fan event in baseball history goes further than the evidence supports. Baseball has produced other fan moments that were at least as unlikely or more consequential. The Steve Bartman play in the 2003 NLCS remains the most famous fan-involved incident because of its timing and impact on a pennant race. The Jeffrey Maier interference game in 1996 also changed a postseason game. More recently, there have been bizarre low-stakes coincidences too, such as the same couple catching home runs from the same player on consecutive nights, and a fan at Camden Yards fielding two live balls in one game. So the fairest answer is that Rizzo’s double catch is one of the rarest and most charming fan events on record, especially because it happened to a former player at his old ballpark twice. What it is not, at least based on available evidence, is an undisputed No. 1. Its case rests on improbability and symbolism, not on historical impact.

Q: What are the true odds of a retired player catching two home run balls?

The true odds cannot be calculated exactly from public data, but they are best described as astronomically small. For a typical fan, estimates for catching one home run ball range from about 1 in 18,000 to 1 in 40,000-50,000. If you simply square those odds to approximate two independent catches, the chance falls to roughly 1 in 324 million on the optimistic end and as low as about 1 in 2.5 billion on the conservative end. That still understates how unusual Anthony Rizzo’s case is. He is not just any fan: he is a retired star, sitting at his former ballpark, and has now come up with two home run balls in the Wrigley bleachers in separate seasons. There is no published database for “retired MLB players catching two homers as spectators,” so no exact official probability exists. But adding that level of specificity makes the event rarer still than the already tiny fan-based estimates. There is one useful comparison. A separate fan feat—catching two home run balls on back-to-back days—has been estimated in the hundreds of millions, and when narrowed to the same player and same inning, observers put it into the billions. Rizzo’s accomplishment belongs in that same extreme category of improbability. So the fairest answer is that the odds are likely in the hundreds of millions to billions against, and possibly even longer, depending on how narrowly the event is defined.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 18

Michael Busch's first-inning home run off Twins right-hander Taj Bradley landed in the right-field bleachers, where former Cubs star Anthony Rizzo came up with the ball.
Rizzo has now ended up with a home run ball at Wrigley in back-to-back seasons, an unlikely repeat while attending games as a fan after retirement.
The moment added another public appearance for the former first baseman, who was honored by the Cubs after a 10-year Chicago run highlighted by the 2016 World Series title.
Rizzo, drafted by Boston in 2007, debuted with San Diego in 2011, was traded to the Yankees in 2021 and played his final MLB season in 2024.