Updated
Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 18
Democrats Lead Republicans 48%-45% in Congress Poll as Trump Approval Sits at 37%
Updated
Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 18

Democrats Lead Republicans 48%-45% in Congress Poll as Trump Approval Sits at 37%

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 18

Summary

  • 48% to 45% — a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted July 8-13 gives Democrats a 3-point edge over Republicans ahead of November's midterms.
  • 53% to 45% among voters "absolutely certain to vote" — Democrats' lead widens to 8 points, with the poll finding Democrats are 10 points more likely than Republicans to say they will definitely vote.
  • 37% approval for Trump in the same survey underscores the backdrop for the race, with his ratings pressured by concerns over the economy and the Iran war; an Economist/YouGov poll also put him at 37%.
  • 2018 offers a benchmark: Democrats held a 10-point pre-midterm advantage before gaining 40 House seats, while this year's narrower margin meets structural hurdles including a two-seat GOP House edge, a 53-47 Senate majority and gerrymandering.

Insights

Will high youth enthusiasm translate into record turnout, or will historical patterns of low midterm participation prevail?
With federal election support reduced, how will local officials guarantee a secure and fair vote for all citizens this November?