Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 18
New York Judge Rejects Kalshi Bid to Block Gambling Laws as IRS Offers 0 Tax Guidance
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 18

New York Judge Rejects Kalshi Bid to Block Gambling Laws as IRS Offers 0 Tax Guidance

2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 18

Summary

  • Earlier this month, a New York federal judge refused to stop New York from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts, a setback for the prediction-market platform.
  • 0 IRS guidance on prediction-market taxes has left traders and advisers split over whether winnings should be treated as gambling income, capital gains or Section 1256 contracts.
  • 90% is the new cap on gambling-loss deductions under Trump’s tax law, meaning a trader with $100 of wins and $100 of losses could still owe tax on $10.
  • May’s launch of Kalshi perpetual futures adds another layer of uncertainty because contracts without expiration dates may be taxed differently from standard event contracts.
  • States are pressing illegal-sports-betting claims while the CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, leaving tax policy tangled with the broader regulatory fight.

Insights

With states and the CFTC at war, will the Supreme Court soon decide if prediction markets are finance or gambling?
Are prediction market traders walking into a major tax trap created by government inaction and regulatory chaos?
As the U.S. struggles with legal chaos, are other countries building a smarter framework for prediction markets?