Updated
Updated · WOLF STREET · Jul 17
Mid-Tier Home Prices Fell in 25 of 33 US Cities, With Austin Down 27%
Updated
Updated · WOLF STREET · Jul 17

Mid-Tier Home Prices Fell in 25 of 33 US Cities, With Austin Down 27%

3 articles · Updated · WOLF STREET · Jul 17

Summary

  • June data showed year-over-year declines in mid-tier home prices across 25 of 33 expensive U.S. cities, while only Chicago and New York City were at or near new highs.
  • Austin led the pullback at 27% below its 2022 peak and 5.0% lower than a year earlier; Oakland was down 25% from peak and 4.6% year over year, with Denver, Washington and Phoenix also posting notable retreats.
  • Most markets remain below prior highs: 28 of 33 cities were off their peaks, which were reached in 2022 for 17 cities, in 2024 for nine, and in early 2025 for Boston and San Jose.
  • A few cities bucked the trend. San Francisco jumped 9.5% from a year earlier, though it was still 8% below its 2022 high, while San Jose and Boston continued to slip from recent peaks.
  • The uneven correction follows the 2020-2022 housing surge, when many cities saw price spikes of 39% to 62%, leaving expensive markets now retrenching at different speeds.

Insights

As AI inflates some city prices, is the rest of the U.S. housing market facing a prolonged, painful correction?
With homeowners 'locked-in' by low rates, what will finally break the housing market's dangerous inventory gridlock?
Can new laws fix the housing crisis when the Fed and AI booms are pulling markets in opposite directions?