Updated

Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 16

Rory McIlroy Opens 2-Over at The Open as 148th-Ranked Putting Costs Nearly 3 Strokes

Updated

Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 16

Rory McIlroy Opens 2-Over at The Open as 148th-Ranked Putting Costs Nearly 3 Strokes

Q: With favorites struggling, can a +35000 longshot actually win the Open Championship?

Yes. A +35000 longshot can realistically win the Open Championship, even if it remains unlikely. The strongest evidence is historical. The Open has produced some of golf’s biggest major upsets, including Ben Curtis at roughly 300-1 in 2003 and Todd Hamilton at 200-1 in 2004. Louis Oosthuizen also won at around 200-1 in 2010, while more recent Open winners such as Brian Harman, Shane Lowry and Zach Johnson were all well outside the favorite tier. Among the majors, The Open has a reputation for being especially vulnerable to surprise winners because links golf and weather can disrupt the usual hierarchy. That matters even more at Royal Birkdale, where firm conditions, wind, pot bunkers and a premium on precise ball-striking can reward specialists and expose stars. The current leaderboard reflects that volatility. Jackson Suber, who opened at +35000 and is making his Open debut, leads at 5-under after a 65. Dan Brown, another pre-tournament longshot, is one back. Meanwhile, several marquee names are already under pressure, with Justin Rose at +5 and Rory McIlroy over par early in his round. That does not make a longshot likely to finish the job. Four rounds at a major usually favor elite players, and contenders such as Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young and Bryson DeChambeau are still close enough to take control. But with favorites struggling and history showing The Open is unusually open to outsiders, a 350-1 winner is clearly possible.

3 articles · Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 16

McIlroy finished Round 1 at 2-over par after missing multiple short putts, including another 4-footer on the 10th that led to a bogey at Royal Birkdale.
Nearly 3 strokes lost on the greens left him 148th in the field in putting, even though he ranked 23rd tee-to-green — a profile suggesting his score was driven more by the putter than ball-striking.
McIlroy said early putts broke differently than expected, eroding his trust on the greens and making it harder to commit to later strokes.
The shaky start was one of Day 1's biggest surprises because McIlroy had gained strokes putting in 15 of his previous 18 majors and now risks a short week.
Jackson Suber set the first-round pace at 5-under 65, while Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm were among players whose stronger tee-to-green numbers pointed to room to climb.