Natixis found 91% of 33 strategists expect AI to be the main market driver in H2 2026, while 42% see US markets delivering the best returns, up from 29% last year.
US large-cap growth underpins that view: two-thirds expect US equities to outperform, more than three-quarters favor large-caps over small-caps, and 82% prefer growth to value.
Inflation remains the biggest threat, with 97% ranking it a top risk after the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption doubled oil prices earlier this year.
Geopolitics still clouds the outlook: 70% warn of renewed Iran-war escalation, nearly 80% see renewed energy-crisis risk, though 82% believe oil prices have already peaked.
Recession fears have eased sharply—only 30% rate it a medium or high risk versus 62% last year—as strategists shift focus to tariffs, deglobalization and AI-led market concentration.
As AI's energy thirst triggers state-level bans, could environmental limits unexpectedly halt the tech market's surge?
As strategists abandon traditional portfolios for gold, is this the dawn of a new 'stagflation-era' investment strategy?
With defence stocks now labeled "sustainable," is ESG investing fundamentally rewriting its own rules for ethical capital?
Navigating H2 2026: AI-Driven Growth, Inflation Risks, and the New Era of Deglobalization
Overview
In the second half of 2026, Artificial Intelligence is firmly established as a foundational technology and is rapidly becoming essential infrastructure across industries. Nearly nine out of ten companies have integrated AI into at least one business function, extending its influence beyond core technology firms. This widespread adoption is driving value by enabling new use cases and improving operational efficiency in diverse sectors. The long-term potential of AI as a transformative market driver is widely recognized, with ongoing investment in generative and agentic AI, even as companies work to translate these advances into measurable performance gains and sustained financial returns.