ASML Sees China at 20% of 2026 Revenue as U.S. Presses Curbs on Chip Tools
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 17
ASML Sees China at 20% of 2026 Revenue as U.S. Presses Curbs on Chip Tools
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 17
Summary
China is set to contribute about 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue, CFO Roger Dassen said, even after years of export restrictions on the Dutch group's most advanced chipmaking machines.
€2.9 billion in first-half China sales—about 16% of total revenue—suggests a stronger second half, with demand led by domestic logic-chip production and Chinese semiconductor equipment spending expected to grow roughly 10% annually for two years.
ASML still cannot ship EUV systems to China, but it does sell less advanced DUV tools there; China ranked as its third-largest market in the first half, behind South Korea and Taiwan, and generated nearly €1 billion more revenue than the U.S.
That exposure is drawing sharper scrutiny in Washington, where lawmakers have urged tighter controls and introduced the MATCH Act, which could block Chinese buyers from purchasing even DUV machines and hit ASML's future order book.
The geopolitical pressure comes just after ASML raised 2026 guidance for a second time on AI-chip demand, highlighting how one of the sector's biggest winners is also navigating a widening U.S.-China technology split.
Is the trillion-dollar AI spending boom sustainable, or is ASML’s record forecast riding a bubble about to burst?
Will US pressure on ASML cripple China's tech ambitions or simply create a powerful, self-reliant competitor?
As US-Iran tensions threaten helium supplies, what other chokepoints could suddenly derail the global AI chip race?
ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to €40B on AI Demand, Faces Geopolitical and Transparency Challenges
Overview
ASML stands at the center of the global semiconductor industry as the exclusive maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing the advanced chips that drive artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The rapid growth of AI infrastructure has led to an unprecedented surge in demand for these cutting-edge chips, fueling ASML’s strong momentum and positioning it as a key indicator of industry trends. With its unique and critical role as the sole enabler of advanced AI chip production, ASML’s upgraded 2026 outlook reflects expectations of significant order volumes and robust revenue growth, reinforcing its importance in the ongoing technological revolution.