Dollar Holds Firm as Gulf Tensions Lift Energy Prices, Pushing Yen Past 162 and Zloty Lower
Updated
Updated · ING Think · Jul 13
Dollar Holds Firm as Gulf Tensions Lift Energy Prices, Pushing Yen Past 162 and Zloty Lower
3 articles · Updated · ING Think · Jul 13
Summary
Higher oil and gas prices tied to the Gulf conflict are keeping the dollar supported, with markets still reluctant to rule out another Fed rate hike this year.
DXY could grind toward 101.50 as rising energy costs bolster the case for tighter US policy, while June core CPI is seen holding around 2.8%-2.9% ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting.
USD/JPY is back above 162 and biased toward 162.70/85, reviving expectations Japan could intervene again this week ahead of next Monday's Marine Day holiday.
EUR/USD's rebound has stalled as European gas prices rise amid low inventories and a heatwave, leaving the pair vulnerable to 1.1360 and possibly 1.1300/25 this month.
In central Europe, Poland's dovish central-bank tone and markets pricing nearly a full rate cut are weighing on the zloty, while broader risk-off pressure may still drag on regional currencies.
As the yen hits a 40-year low, could the unwind of a single currency trade trigger the next global financial crisis?
Is the Fed's new silent treatment a bold move for market health or a reckless gamble with the global economy?
With fragility indicators at record highs, is the calm stock market hiding an imminent and unprecedented crash?
The Yen’s 39-Year Nadir: Unpacking Japan’s Currency Crisis and Its Global Fallout
Overview
In late June 2026, the Japanese yen suffered an unprecedented decline, falling to a 39-year low against the U.S. dollar and trading past the 162 mark. This sharp depreciation was visible on electronic screens outside Tokyo brokerages, reflecting intense market anticipation and concerns about possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Despite these worries, the yen continued its downward path, with markets closely watching for official measures to stabilize the currency. The prolonged and steep fall of the yen raised serious questions about Japan’s economic stability and its impact on global trade and financial markets.