White Sox Lean to Roch Cholowsky at No. 1 as 2026 MLB Draft Top 13 Shifts

Q: Which star prospect’s late-season slump will cause a shocking fall in tomorrow’s first round?

The best fit is **Sawyer Strosnider**. Among the prospects discussed, Strosnider is the one most directly tied to a draft-year slide driven by underperformance. The supporting material notes that he has “slipped a little because of platoon-split issues and some underperformance,” and separately compares him to Jace LaViolette as another tooled-up Texas college outfielder who slumped in his draft year. That makes him the clearest answer to a player whose late-season fade could trigger an unexpected drop in the first round. There are other candidates for movement, but their cases are less exact. **Chris Hacopian** hurt his stock with a poor regional showing and could slide toward the back half of the round, but that looks more like a modest dip than a shocking fall. **Roch Cholowsky** has faced questions after a quiet NCAA regional, yet he is still widely expected to go in the top three. **Logan Reddemann** is a different case entirely: his uncertainty is tied to arm fatigue and medical evaluations, not a slump. So if the question is which notable prospect is most vulnerable to a surprise first-round drop because of a late-season downturn, the evidence points most strongly to **Strosnider**.

Q: Is the White Sox's top pick a talent decision or a clever bonus negotiation tactic?

It appears to be both, but mainly a talent decision sharpened by bonus leverage. The White Sox are choosing among Grady Emerson, Roch Cholowsky and Vahn Lackey, and the available reporting suggests that debate is real. Emerson is still the most common projection at No. 1, Cholowsky is highly regarded by evaluators and by Keith Law personally, and Lackey has gained serious traction because of his all-around value at catcher. That points to a genuine baseball decision, not a fabricated one. At the same time, the White Sox’s public engagement with Cholowsky is widely viewed around the industry as a negotiating tool. Under MLB’s bonus-pool system, the No. 1 pick carries an $11.35 million slot value, and Chicago’s total pool is about $17.5 million. If the White Sox can sign their top pick for less than slot, they can redirect savings to later selections and pursue tougher over-slot signs. That makes it logical for them to keep multiple names alive until the end. So the uncertainty is not just theater, but it is also not purely about identifying the single best player in a vacuum. The White Sox seem to be doing both: weighing three closely grouped prospects on merit while using that uncertainty to improve their negotiating position. If Emerson is the pick, it would fit both the talent consensus and a possible savings strategy. If Cholowsky or Lackey goes first, that would signal the club’s internal board mattered more than public projections.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jul 11

Saturday-morning projections now put UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky first to Chicago, ahead of Grady Emerson to Tampa Bay and Vahn Lackey to Minnesota, with the top three still viewed as a clear tier.
Seven of the top 13 picks changed from Friday, led by Jackson Flora rising to the Giants at No. 4, Jacob Lombard moving to the Nationals at No. 11 and Ryder Helfrick to St. Louis at No. 12.
San Francisco is seen favoring Flora at No. 4, while Pittsburgh at No. 5 appears down to Drew Burress and Derek Curiel unless Flora slips, underscoring how quickly the board could break after the first three picks.
Bonus strategy is a major variable: the analyst says all of the first 10 picks could come in below slot value, with teams such as Atlanta and San Diego also tied to underslot or flexible late Day 1 options.
The latest mock reinforces a broader view of a wide-open first round in which team preferences, signability and late draft-day intel may not settle the No. 1 pick until hours before the 1 p.m. ET start.