3% global growth in 2026 is now the IMF’s forecast, down from 3.1% in April and 3.5% in 2025, as the Iran war’s energy shock slows the world economy.
32% higher oil prices this year and 4.7% global inflation in 2026 reflect the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, which disrupted a route carrying about a fifth of global crude and gas.
Later-this-month reopening of the strait and a return to normal commerce by next March are built into the forecast, even as U.S. strikes resumed and Donald Trump said a ceasefire was over.
2.3% U.S. growth and AI-driven investment are helping cushion the shock, while the euro area is seen growing just 0.9%; China is forecast at 4.6% and India at 6.4%.
3.4% growth next year would mark a rebound, but the IMF says two years of progress against inflation have stalled under the war-driven energy squeeze.